The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said India and China will account for half of the global economic growth in 2023, as the multilateral agency retained its growth forecast for Asia's third-largest economy for 2023-24 (FY24). "India remains a bright spot. Together with China, it will account for half of global growth this year, versus just a tenth for the US and euro area combined," the IMF said in its latest update to the biannual World Economic Outlook. Growth in India is set to decline from 6.8 per cent in 2022 (FY23) to 6.1 per cent in 2023 (FY24) before picking up to 6.8 per cent in 2024 (FY25), the global lender said while citing "resilient domestic demand despite external headwinds".
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday said it is expecting some slowdown in the Indian economy next fiscal year and projected the growth to 6.1 per cent from 6.8 per cent during the current fiscal ending March 31. The IMF on Tuesday released the January update of its World Economic Outlook, according to which the global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 per cent in 2022 to 2.9 per cent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 per cent in 2024. "Our growth projections actually for India are unchanged from our October Outlook.
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday retained India's economic growth forecast at 7 per cent for the current fiscal, but cut projections for the next two financial years saying the country is not impervious to global developments. In its December edition of the Global Economic Outlook, Fitch projected India's GDP to grow at 7 per cent in the current fiscal, at a slower rate of 6.2 per cent in 2023-24 and at 6.9 per cent in 2024-25. In September, Fitch projected 7 per cent growth for the current fiscal, followed by 6.7 per cent in 2023-24 and 7.1 per cent growth in 2024-25.
The next annual budget of India will have to be very carefully structured to sustain the country's growth momentum, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Tuesday, noting that it will also address inflation concerns. Visiting Washington DC to attend the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the finance minister was responding to a question on the next year's Budget at a fire-side chat with eminent economist Eshwar Prasad at the prestigious Brookings Institute. "Specifics (of the next Budget) may be difficult at this stage because it's a bit too early. "But broadly, the growth priorities will be kept absolutely on the top. "Even as I speak about the concerns that inflation brings before me. So, inflation concerns will have to be addressed. "But then how would you manage growth would be the natural question," Sitharaman said.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Gita Gopinath has made a strong case for regulating cryptocurrencies, saying it will always be a challenge to ban them as they operate from offshore exchanges. Gopinath also suggested a global policy and co-ordinated action for regulating cryptocurrencies. "I think cryptocurrencies are a particular challenge for emerging markets. "It seems to be more attractive to adopt cryptocurrencies and assets in emerging economies than in advanced economies," she said while addressing an event organised by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) on Wednesday.
The Bharatiya Janata Party rejected this was any sort of demonetisation and instead reminded the Congress that even during the rule of Manmohan Singh, old currency notes were taken off circulation.
'I think my first obsessive, possessive and only half-requited -- as we would joke -- 'love' was Ivan. I saw him first slouching down the corridor of St Stephen's College nearly 50 years ago and was instantly smitten (as was everyone else around him).'
'If because of El Nino, the monsoon is affected adversely in the current year, naturally it will affect income projections and consequently Budget numbers.'
Amid demands for snapping trade ties with China for its transgressions on the border, former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya has opined that cutting trade with Beijing at this juncture would amount to sacrificing India's potential economic growth. Instead, Panagariya suggested that India should try to enter into free trade agreements (FTA) with countries such as the UK and the European Union to expand its trade. "Engaging China in a trade war at this juncture will mean sacrificing a considerable part of our potential growth... purely on economic grounds, it will be unwise to take any action in response to it (transgressions on the border)," the eminent economist told PTI.
Former Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Arvind Panagariya has opined that cutting trade with Beijing at this juncture would amount to sacrificing India's potential economic growth.
The police in Kanpur have lodged an FIR against The Week magazine amid a row over "objectionable pictures" of Lord Shiva and Goddess Kali that has led Hindu activists to burn copies of the magazine and economist Bibek Debroy end his association with it.
As the posters suddenly sprang up in Kumbakonam, the VCK members staged an agitation demanding stringent action on the Indu Makkal Katchi for their affront on Ambedkar.
Two Indians -- Prodyut Bora and Abhik Sen -- are among the 16 people selected for this year's World Fellows Programme by the prestigious Yale University.
An atmospheric scientist, Ramanathan focuses his research on global climate dynamics, the greenhouse effect, aerosols, clouds, and the earth radiation budget.
'Indian families' needs and expectations have gone through a revolution across economic demographics.' 'As this latest Modi-Sitharaman Budget demonstrated, politicians have understood this change. They are responding to it,' points out Shekhar Gupta.
The Biden administration has proposed a massive hike in immigration fees, including the much sought-after H-1B visas for high-skilled foreign workers, which is very popular among Indian tech professionals. Under the proposed rule, published by the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) on Wednesday, the application for the H-1B visa increases from $460 to $780, and L-1 from $460 to $1,385. The application fee for O-1 visas has been proposed to increase from $460 to $1,055.
Pfaff said resolving the mystery shrouding Bose's life and bringing back the ashes to India would be a true tribute to the revolutionary as the country celebrates its 75th anniversary of Independence.
BofA Securities has revised its year-end Nifty target from its earlier projection of 16,000 to 14,500 now - down over 6 per cent from the current levels. Fast tightening monetary conditions, slowing growth/fears of US recession and the likely Nifty EPS (earnings per share) cuts, BofA Securities said, are the key headwinds for the markets in the near-term. However, clarity on macro and monetary policy outlook in the US/India, it said, is the silver lining that could see markets bottom out by August/September 2022.
Amid wholesale price-based inflation ticking up to 7.5 per cent year-on-year in May due to supply-side factors, the agency said it will cause further "headaches" at the RBI.
In 2011, the Chinese spent 14 per cent of GDP on groceries.
The rising pitch of road shows and long rallies with hectoring pitches seem to have exhausted and numbed the audiences, rather than motivating them to vote for the party, observes Shreekant Sambrani.
'The impact of a devaluation will be modest on India's exports'.
Will the rupee keep falling in value against the US dollar? What will be its impact?
In twin blows to Indian economic revival, higher food prices drove retail inflation to a five-month high of 7.4 per cent while factory output fell for the first time in 18 months. The second consecutive month of rise in consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation will add to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to again raise interest rates to tame high prices. Inflation has been above the targeted zone for the ninth month in a row and as per statute, the RBI will now have to explain to the government in writing why it failed to keep prices below 6 per cent.
The committee, headed by former agriculture secretary Sanjay Agrawal, discussed ways to "promote zero budget based farming", to "change" crop patterns keeping in mind the changing needs of the country, and to make MSP more "effective and transparent".
'Nirmalaji must consider herself a very lucky finance minister, partly because of the government's response to covid and partly because we as a nation have done very well as an economy, post pandemic.'
If writing newspaper columns merited Nobel prizes, Indians would have many more of them. But Professor Krugman is also amongst the most eminent academic economists in the US. He was awarded the John Bates Clark Medal in 1991; the award is given every alternate year to an American economist under the age of 40. Twelve of the first 23 have gone on to win Nobel prizes.
'Of the 202 debates, 79 were around attacking Pakistan and 66 attacking the Opposition and Nehru.' 'The PMC Bank scam where thousands of depositors lost their savings got just one,' points out Vanita Kohli-Khandekar.
Lagarde had said an Indian could head IMF.
Both prime ministers believed in crafting schemes to help the common man. Modi used quite effectively the instruments Dr Singh introduced. In assessing Modi's success with many schemes, Dr Singh's fundamental work should not be ignored, points out A K Bhattacharya.
"As Netaji's only child I feel obliged to ensure that his dearest wish, to return to his country in freedom, will at last be fulfilled in this form and that the appropriate ceremonies to honour him will be performed," Pfaff said.
Universal basic income or social security? Economist Nitin Desai feels we need a blueprint for universal health care and pensions to help the vulnerable section.
Farmer leader Abhimanyu Kohar said the government has also made some corporate people members of the MSP panel.
The biggest risk to India's growth outlook is an escalation of geopolitical tensions, especially if these tensions spread to the Asian region, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said on Wednesday. Varma, in an interview to PTI, said that inflation and inflationary expectations appear to be moderating and high inflation will certainly not become the 'norm' in the country. He is cautiously optimistic about the Indian economy as after the pandemic abated, consumption demand has begun to recover though the recovery is uneven across sectors and industries.
Indian companies' market capitalization has grown at the fastest pace last year among major economies despite contraction in GDP, economists from SBI said, flagging the risks to financial stability it poses. Further, retail investors have shown higher interest in markets and their numbers have increased by 1.42 crore in FY21 and another 44 lakh in April and May, they said in a note, wondering if this will be a lasting behavioural change or is transitory. The economists at the country's largest lender attributed the growth in equity markets to lower returns on other financial instruments amid a low rates regime, increase in global liquidity, and even a tendency to spend more time at home because of mobility restrictions which led many to trade more.
Despite its admirable competence and proven track record, the RBI doesn't have the capacity to supervise an economy that's growing so fast and becoming larger by the year, points out T C A Srinivasa Raghavan.
The Indian economy, severely hit by the coronavirus pandemic, is projected to contract by a massive 10.3 per cent this year, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday. However, India is likely to bounce back with an impressive 8.8 per cent growth rate in 2021, thus regaining the position of the fastest growing emerging economy, surpassing China's projected growth rate of 8.2 per cent, the IMF said in its latest 'World Economic Outlook' report.
The rhetoric that we are fed daily needs to be measured against performance and the facts. That is not happening, points out Aakar Patel.
'If there are any symptoms/variants of concern, states can prepare accordingly.'
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