'Just see what kind of political, social and economic impact it will have when the number of unemployed goes up four times in one year suddenly.'
Gita Gopinath, the IMF's Indian-American chief economist has been promoted as its First Deputy Managing Director recognising her exceptional intellectual leadership in helping the global economy and the Fund to navigate the "twists and turns" of the "worst economic crisis of our lives". Gopinath would replace Geoffrey Okamoto who plans to leave the International Monetary Fund early next year, Kristalina Georgieva, IMF's managing director announced on Thursday. Gopinath, who was scheduled to return to her academic position at Harvard University in January 2022, has decided to stay, she said. Gopinath, 49, has served as the first female chief economist of the Washington-based global lender for three years.
The argument that India is going towards a 'Hindu rate of growth' is "ill-conceived, biased and pre-mature" when weighed against the respective data on savings and investments, said SBI Research in its Ecowrap report. The term Hindu rate of growth was coined by economist Raj Krishna in 1978, which denoted the economic growth of about 3.5-4.0 per cent in terms of GDP during 1947-1980. "India's quarterly sequential Y-o-Y GDP growth has been in a declining trend in FY23.
Ultimately quotas kill talent and true meritocracy, argues R Jagannathan.
Claims of a spike in poverty and inequality in India during the Covid-19 pandemic are patently false as such claims are based on uncomparable different surveys, according to a paper co-authored by eminent economist Arvind Panagariya. The paper also noted that inequality fell in the country during Covid years, both in rural and urban areas as well as nationally. Panagariya, Columbia University Professor and former vice chairman of NITI Aayog and Vishal More of Intelink Advisors, New Delhi have co-authored a detailed paper 'Poverty and Inequality in India: Before and After Covid-19'.
In stock market parlance, "meme stock" was certainly the word of the year. Coined to mean those stocks that gain sudden popularity on the internet with resultant high prices, it was used to derisively describe the behaviour of retail traders globally who entered the market in huge numbers in the two Covid-19 years. A recent study, "Market Concentration and Retail Participation in India", by the National Stock Exchange economics team led by their chief economist Tirthankar Patnaik shows unlike these impressions, the retail investors, at least in India, have not performed inconsistently.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the policy repo rate at 6.5 per cent during its upcoming June 8 announcement, considering the easing of retail inflation in April and the potential for further decline, indicating the effectiveness of previous policy rate actions, anticipate experts. Headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, a meeting of the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled for June 6-8. The decision of the 43rd meeting of the MPC would be announced on Thursday, June 8.
In a statement, Pfaff also noted that the countries Netaji had approached were the only ones willing to support the fight against a common adversary.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday cut India's economic growth forecast for current fiscal year to 7 per cent, but said the domestic demand-led economy will be less impacted by the global slowdown. S&P had in September projected the Indian economy to grow 7.3 per cent in 2022-23 and 6.5 per cent in next fiscal year (2023-24). "The global slowdown will have less impact on domestic demand-led economies such as India... India's output will expand 7 per cent in fiscal year 2022-2023 and 6 per cent in next fiscal year," S&P Global Ratings Asia-Pacific chief economist Louis Kuijs said.
'Education is disconnected from social reality and does not even attempt to solve the real problems of our country,' observe Peehu Pardeshi and Sandeep Pandey.
Amid news of a fuel shortage in some parts of the country and wider unrest over fuel issues in the neighbourhood, an analysis of the data from international tracker globalpetrolprices.com shows that the per litre price of petrol is higher in India than in seven out of its nine neighbours.
An atmospheric scientist, Ramanathan focuses his research on global climate dynamics, the greenhouse effect, aerosols, clouds, and the earth radiation budget.
Two Indians -- Prodyut Bora and Abhik Sen -- are among the 16 people selected for this year's World Fellows Programme by the prestigious Yale University.
'It was more than ego.' 'It carried with it a sincere belief that he was the quintessence of the country, that the country's destiny was irrevocably intertwined with his destiny.' An excerpt from T J S George's The Dismantling of India: In 35 Portraits.
When it comes to running between the wickets -- which is exactly what an FM and a governor do -- Jadeja always defers to Dhoni's larger judgement of the situation and the needs of the team, observes T C A Srinivasa-Raghavan.
Amid wholesale price-based inflation ticking up to 7.5 per cent year-on-year in May due to supply-side factors, the agency said it will cause further "headaches" at the RBI.
Uncertainty looms over India's export outlook, with the new Covid-19 variant Omicron spreading rapidly across the country's key shipment destinations. With the US and parts of Europe witnessing more than 100,000 Covid-19 cases a day, exporters expect some disruption. However, there may not be an immediate decline in exports from India because the order books remain strong at least for the next few weeks, they said.
In 2011, the Chinese spent 14 per cent of GDP on groceries.
If writing newspaper columns merited Nobel prizes, Indians would have many more of them. But Professor Krugman is also amongst the most eminent academic economists in the US. He was awarded the John Bates Clark Medal in 1991; the award is given every alternate year to an American economist under the age of 40. Twelve of the first 23 have gone on to win Nobel prizes.
'The impact of a devaluation will be modest on India's exports'.
Will the rupee keep falling in value against the US dollar? What will be its impact?
'We cannot afford to be complacent about our food security needs.'
This State-corporate 'cooperation' didn't begin with the arrival of the Modi government.
Many of the big licences, contracts, and even environmental clearances for the Adani group had come in the UPA's time, points out Shekhar Gupta.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Gita Gopinath has made a strong case for regulating cryptocurrencies, saying it will always be a challenge to ban them as they operate from offshore exchanges. Gopinath also suggested a global policy and co-ordinated action for regulating cryptocurrencies. "I think cryptocurrencies are a particular challenge for emerging markets. "It seems to be more attractive to adopt cryptocurrencies and assets in emerging economies than in advanced economies," she said while addressing an event organised by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) on Wednesday.
The speed at which he led the central bank in different areas -- ranging from internal reorganisation to inflation fighting, stabilising the currency, taking on rogue corporations, cleaning up bank balance sheets, and opening the sector -- makes one believe that Rajan knew he had only three years to do his job. A fascinating excerpt from Tamal Bandyopadhyay's MUST-READ Roller Coaster: An Affair with Banking.
Lagarde had said an Indian could head IMF.
Seven of the meetings will be held in late November or early December at the finance ministry, as is the norm.
'If private capex has to kick in, there should at least be 2-3 years of visibility.'
'Of the 202 debates, 79 were around attacking Pakistan and 66 attacking the Opposition and Nehru.' 'The PMC Bank scam where thousands of depositors lost their savings got just one,' points out Vanita Kohli-Khandekar.
Universal basic income or social security? Economist Nitin Desai feels we need a blueprint for universal health care and pensions to help the vulnerable section.
Corporate India is indicating cautious hiring in the March quarter of 2023 as concerns rise over possible recession and steady inflation, a survey said on Thursday. According to the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, based on interviews with nearly 3,030 public and private employers, hiring intentions will decrease in the quarter both on year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis. During the quarter, 48 per cent employers expect to increase their staffing levels, 16 per cent anticipate a decrease in hiring intent and 34 per cent do not anticipate any change in hiring, resulting in a net employment outlook of 32 per cent.
The next annual budget of India will have to be very carefully structured to sustain the country's growth momentum, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Tuesday, noting that it will also address inflation concerns. Visiting Washington DC to attend the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the finance minister was responding to a question on the next year's Budget at a fire-side chat with eminent economist Eshwar Prasad at the prestigious Brookings Institute. "Specifics (of the next Budget) may be difficult at this stage because it's a bit too early. "But broadly, the growth priorities will be kept absolutely on the top. "Even as I speak about the concerns that inflation brings before me. So, inflation concerns will have to be addressed. "But then how would you manage growth would be the natural question," Sitharaman said.
Retail inflation fell to a 15-month low of 5.66 per cent in March, mainly due to a decline in food prices, government data showed on Wednesday. The inflation figure in March is within the RBI's comfort zone as it is below 6 per cent. The retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 6.44 per cent in February 2023 and 6.95 per cent in the year-ago period.
'With a solid investment programme and sustainable development strategy, India can exceed 7 per cent growth per year, or a doubling of high-quality national income within a decade.'
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said India and China will account for half of the global economic growth in 2023, as the multilateral agency retained its growth forecast for Asia's third-largest economy for 2023-24 (FY24). "India remains a bright spot. Together with China, it will account for half of global growth this year, versus just a tenth for the US and euro area combined," the IMF said in its latest update to the biannual World Economic Outlook. Growth in India is set to decline from 6.8 per cent in 2022 (FY23) to 6.1 per cent in 2023 (FY24) before picking up to 6.8 per cent in 2024 (FY25), the global lender said while citing "resilient domestic demand despite external headwinds".
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday said it is expecting some slowdown in the Indian economy next fiscal year and projected the growth to 6.1 per cent from 6.8 per cent during the current fiscal ending March 31. The IMF on Tuesday released the January update of its World Economic Outlook, according to which the global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 per cent in 2022 to 2.9 per cent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 per cent in 2024. "Our growth projections actually for India are unchanged from our October Outlook.
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday retained India's economic growth forecast at 7 per cent for the current fiscal, but cut projections for the next two financial years saying the country is not impervious to global developments. In its December edition of the Global Economic Outlook, Fitch projected India's GDP to grow at 7 per cent in the current fiscal, at a slower rate of 6.2 per cent in 2023-24 and at 6.9 per cent in 2024-25. In September, Fitch projected 7 per cent growth for the current fiscal, followed by 6.7 per cent in 2023-24 and 7.1 per cent growth in 2024-25.
'India's manufacturing will take 10-15 years to catch up with China.'
The difference between what the banks play in the US and India is not that of soccer and football but rugby and football. SVB also has a unique character. But when risks are mispriced, the fallout could be very similar, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
